@Article{CastroVonRVonRBeze:2022:EvCaWa,
author = "Castro, Aline Anderson de and Von Randow, Celso and Von Randow,
Rita de C{\'a}ssia Silva and Bezerra, Francisco Gilney Silva",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Faculdade de
Tecnologia do Estado de S{\~a}o Paulo (FATEC)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under
changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in
land use",
journal = "Frontiers in Climate",
year = "2022",
volume = "4",
pages = "e941900",
month = "Sept.",
keywords = "Brazilian biomes, climate change, land-use change, projections,
scenarios.",
abstract = "Climate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural
vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this
work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and
stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of
regional climate regulation under two contrasting future
scenarios: a sustainable development scenario, where some
deforested areas are restored by vegetation regrowth combined with
a low representative concentration pathway, and a pessimistic
scenario, where there is still high deforestation rates and strong
climate change. We used refined regional scenarios for land-use
change in Brazil, together with climate projections of the
HADGEM2-ES model for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 to drive a land surface
model and assess possible future impacts in surface fluxes. Our
results show that drying climate and shifts of natural vegetation
into anthropogenic land use might shift part of upperstory biomass
into understory biomass, which can be more vulnerable to dry
events. The simulations also show that climate change appears to
drive most of the water balance changes compared to land-use
change, especially over the Amazon.",
doi = "10.3389/fclim.2022.941900",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.941900",
issn = "2624-9553",
language = "en",
targetfile = "fclim-04-941900.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "03 maio 2024"
}